Proyeksi Penduduk 2000-2025
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Jumlah penduduk hari ini  .:. Indonesia = 244,988,225 .:. Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam = 4,157,306 .:. Sumatera Utara = 13,793,998 .:. Sumatera Barat = 4,664,540 .:. Riau = 8,696,264 .:. Jambi = 3,116,998 .:. Sumatera Selatan = 7,742,162 .:. Bengkulu = 1,924,937 .:. Lampung = 8,277,870 .:. Kep. Bangka Belitung = 1,103,279 .:. DKI Jakarta = 9,138,800 .:. Jawa Barat = 45,409,837 .:. Jawa Tengah = 32,807,655 .:. DI Yogyakarta = 3,554,813 .:. Jawa Timur = 36,741,182 .:. Banten = 11,852,542 .:. Bali = 3,757,084 .:. Nusa Tenggara Barat = 4,977,257 .:. Nusa Tenggara Timur = 4,642,887 .:. Kalimantan Barat = 5,073,332 .:. Kalimantan Tengah = 2,696,637 .:. Kalimantan Selatan = 3,717,752 .:. Kalimantan Timur = 3,511,870 .:. Sulawesi Utara = 2,379,747 .:. Sulawesi Tengah = 2,837,802 .:. Sulawesi Selatan = 9,327,815 .:. Sulawesi Tenggara = 2,597,501 .:. Gorontalo = 931,503 .:. Maluku = 1,457,305 .:. Maluku Utara = 1,033,859 .:. Papua = 3,063,163
Home arrow 3. Results
Thursday, 24 July 2014
 
 
3.1. Population Growth Rate and Total PDF Print E-mail

3.1. Population Growth Rate and Total

The result of the projection shows that the total population of Indonesia will always increase in the next 25 years, from 205.1 million in 2000 to 273.1 million in year 2025 (Table 3.1). However, the average Indonesian population growth each year decreases in 2000-2025 year period. In 1990-2000 period, Indonesia population grows at 1.49% each year, then in 2000-2005 period and 2020-2025 period declines to 1.33 percent and 0,92 percent respectively each year. This growth decrease is caused by both the decrease of fertility rate and mortality rate, but because the decrease of fertility rate is faster than the decrease of mortality rate consequently the overall growth decreases. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) population from the last projection, whereas Crude Death Rate (CDR) is the same at 7 per 1000 population in the same time span.

One of the characteristics of Indonesian Population is the uneven growth between islands and provinces. Since 1930, most of the Indonesian population lives in Java Island, even though the total land area is less than 7 percent from the total land area of Indonesia. However gradually Indonesian population percentage that live in Java Island decreases from about 59,1 percent in year 2000 to 55,5 percent in year 2025. On the other hand, population percentage that live in other islands keep increasing such as, Sumatera island increase from 20,7 percent to 22,7 percent, Kalimantan increase from 5,5 percent to 6,5 percent in the same period. Besides the fact that natural growth in those islands are higher that in Java island, but also migration factor that start to spread to these islands determine the population distribution (Table 3.1).

Tabel 3.1 Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk Menurut Provinsi 2000-2025

Propinsi 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
11. NANGGROE ACEH DARUSSALAM 3,929.3 4,037.9 4,112.2 4,166.3 4,196.5 4,196.3
12. SUMATERA UTARA 11,642.6 12,452.8 13,217.6 13,923.6 14,549.6 15,059.3
13. SUMATERA BARAT 4,248.5 4,402.1 4,535.3 4,693.4 4,785.4 4,846.0
14. RIAU 4,948.0 6,108.4 7,469.4 8,997.7 10,692.8 12,571.3
15. JAMBI 2,407.2 2,657.3 2,911.7 3,164.8 3,409.0 3,636.8
16. SUMATERA SELATAN 6,210.8 6,755.9 7,306.3 7,840.1 8,369.6 8,875.8
17. BENGKULU 1,455.5 1,617.4 1,784.5 1,955.4 2,125.8 2,291.6
18. LAMPUNG 6,730.8 7,291.3 7,843.0 8,377.4 8,881.0 9,330.0
19. KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG 900.0 971.5 1,044.7 1,116.4 1,183.0 1,240.0
31. DKI JAKARTA 8,361.0 8,699.6 8,981.2 9,168.5 9,262.6 9,259.9
32. JAWA BARAT 35,724.0 39,066.7 42,555.3 46,073.8 49,512.1 52,740.8
33. JAWA TENGAH 31,223.0 31,887.2 32,451.6 32,882.7 33,138.9 33,152.8
34. D I YOGYAKARTA 3,121.1 3,280.2 3,439.0 3,580.3 3,694.7 3,776.5
35. JAWA TIMUR 34,766.0 35,550.4 36,269.5 36,840.4 37,183.0 37,194.5
36. BANTEN 8,098.1 9,309.0 10,661.1 12,140.0 13,717.6 15,343.5
51. B A L I 3,150.0 3,378.5 3,596.7 3,792.6 3,967.7 4,122.1
52. NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 4,008.6 4,355.5 4,701.1 5,040.8 5,367.7 5,671.6
53. NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 3,823.1 4,127.3 4,417.6 4,694.9 4,957.6 5,194.8
61. KALIMANTAN BARAT 4,016.2 4,394.3 4,771.5 5,142.5 5,493.6 5,809.1
62. KALIMANTAN TENGAH 1,855.6 2,137.9 2,439.9 2,757.2 3,085.8 3,414.4
63. KALIMANTAN SELATAN 2,984.0 3,240.1 3,503.3 3,767.8 4,023.9 4,258.0
64. KALIMANTAN TIMUR 2,451.9 2,810.9 3,191.0 3,587.9 3,995.6 4,400.4
71. SULAWESI UTARA 2,000.9 2,141.9 2,277.2 2,402.8 2,517.2 2,615.5
72. SULAWESI TENGAH 2,176.0 2,404.0 2,640.5 2,884.2 3,131.2 3,372.2
73. SULAWESI SELATAN 8,050.8 8,493.7 8,926.6 9,339.9 9,715.1 10,023.6
74. SULAWESI TENGGARA 1,820.3 2,085.9 2,363.9 2,653.0 2,949.6 3,246.5
75. GORONTALO 833.5 872.2 906.9 937.5 962.4 979.4
81. M A L U K U 1,166.3 1,266.2 1,369.4 1,478.3 1,589.7 1,698.8
82. MALUKU UTARA 815.1 890.2 969.5 1,052.7 1,135.5 1,215.2
94. PAPUA 2,213.8 2,518.4 2,819.9 3,119.5 3,410.8 3,682.5

The total population in each province is very diverse as well as the growth rate. Compared to the growth rate in 1990-2000 periods, in the current population growth rate there are some provinces that rise drastically and some others fall drastically (no data provided). As an example, the provinces that the population growth rate fall drastically minimal 0.5% compared to the previous period (1990-2000) is Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, Sumatera Selatan, Bengkulu, Jawa Tengah, Sulawesi Tengah, Gorontalo and Papua. Where as, the provinces that the population growth rate rise with minimal 0.4% compared to the previous period is Lampung, Kep. Bangka Belitung, DKI Jakarta and Maluku Utara.

Table 3.2 shows 2 provinces that have negative population growth rate averages that are Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and DKI Jakarta. This condition is probably because the migration assumption used, that is migration pattern according to age as the projection period is considered the same as the migration period in 1995-2000, especially for Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam province. The net migration pattern in 1995-2000 periods is minus above 10 percent, far higher that other province that send migrants.

Tabel 3.2 Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk Menurut Provinsi 2000-2025

Propinsi 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
11. NANGGROE ACEH DARUSSALAM 0.55 0.37 0.26 0.14 -0.00
12. SUMATERA UTARA 1.35 1.20 1.05 0.88 0.69
13. SUMATERA BARAT 0.71 0.60 0.69 0.39 0.25
14. RIAU 4.30 4.11 3.79 3.51 3.29
15. JAMBI 2.00 1.85 1.68 1.50 1.30
16. SUMATERA SELATAN 1.70 1.58 1.42 1.32 1.18
17. BENGKULU 2.13 1.99 1.85 1.69 1.51
18. LAMPUNG 1.61 1.47 1.33 1.17 0.99
19. KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG 1.54 1.46 1.34 1.17 0.95
31. DKI JAKARTA 0.80 0.64 0.41 0.20 -0.01
32. JAWA BARAT 1.81 1.73 1.60 1.45 1.27
33. JAWA TENGAH 0.42 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.01
34. D I YOGYAKARTA 1.00 0.95 0.81 0.63 0.44
35. JAWA TIMUR 0.45 0.40 0.31 0.19 0.01
36. BANTEN 2.83 2.75 2.63 2.47 2.27
51. B A L I 1.41 1.26 1.07 0.91 0.77
52. NUSA TENGGARA BARAT 1.67 1.54 1.41 1.26 1.11
53. NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR 1.54 1.37 1.23 1.09 0.94
61. KALIMANTAN BARAT 1.82 1.66 1.51 1.33 1.12
62. KALIMANTAN TENGAH 2.87 2.68 2.48 2.28 2.04
63. KALIMANTAN SELATAN 1.66 1.57 1.47 1.32 1.14
64. KALIMANTAN TIMUR 2.77 2.57 2.37 2.18 1.95
71. SULAWESI UTARA 1.37 1.23 1.08 0.93 0.77
72. SULAWESI TENGAH 2.01 1.89 1.78 1.66 1.49
73. SULAWESI SELATAN 1.08 1.00 0.91 0.79 0.63
74. SULAWESI TENGGARA 2.76 2.53 2.33 2.14 1.94
75. GORONTALO 0.91 0.78 0.67 0.53 0.35
81. M A L U K U 1.66 1.58 1.54 1.46 1.34
82. MALUKU UTARA 1.78 1.72 1.66 1.53 1.37
94. PAPUA 2.61 2.29 2.04 1.80 1.54


 
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